London price falls affecting regional housing market

We often talk of London as if it is in a housing market in its own right, somewhat separate to the rest of the UK. Zoopla research released this month suggests that the correlation between the London market and the southern regions is perhaps closer than we’d thought.

London is leading the charge on house prices and sales volumes, be it in an upward or downward direction. After accelerated growth between 2010 and 2015, a growing proportion of markets started to register price falls. It then took just over a year for price falls in London to then feed into Southern England as prices adjusted to weaker demand and lower sales volumes.

Read on for more trends and predictions, or alternatively delve into the full research report.


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In summary

London peaks

London experienced especially high levels of growth across 2010 – 2015.

Price falls accelerate

We then saw the steepest drop in house prices in 2016, the start of Brexit uncertainty.

Sales volumes plateau

Pricing expected to re-align between buyers and sellers across 2019 – 2020.



Regional house price growth YoY

London leads the way when it comes to house prices and sales volumes. This is as true when the market is on the way up as it is on the way down. The overshoot during London’s peak was heightened due to the fact that the demand for housing is wider and more diverse in the capital than your average British city.


Southern regions following the London

Hometrack’s localised house price indices show that housing markets in Southern England are now following the London trend. More than a third (36%) of homes are in markets with annual price declines. It took more than a year for price falls in London to take effect on the South.


What can we expect next?

We expect price falls to be more short-lived than we have seen in London, most likely extending into early 2020. Sale volumes, which have fallen by 10%* will likely plateau and then start to increase over time.

In London, we currently expect sales volumes to plateau and slowly start to increase over the latter parts of 2019 and into 2020.